Search Sense

We’ve been talking a lot about the increasing importance of people to search, both directly through networks of people actively recommending & exchanging sites, and indirectly through search engines’ efforts to ape human wants.

Obviously, the same social thing has been happening with news via sites like Digg, del.icio.us and so-on, but it’s interesting to see it happening with news prediction, which is a new one on me.

Yahoo’s applied to patent a way to index and retrieve information alongside a related date. Searching for ’space’ events might produce a list of future events by year.

An example they give for 2034 would return:

A human base on the moon in operation

A couple of things occur to me about the usefulness of the approach when it comes to forecasting near-future events. It’s fine to have 100 results for 2034, but there might be 100,000,000 results for 2014. How does that help the user?

Also, the two examples above were sound predictions in 2005. By 2030 they may be laughable - Voyager 2 might in fact have been eaten by a huge alien that takes up residence on the moon. Fear him, puny humans.

The results need to be nimble enough to respond quickly when reality fails to follow the amassed weight of earlier expectations.

Which makes me wonder if a better way to forecast near-term events is just to let people do it based on their own knowledge, prejudices and gut feeling, as Hubdub attempts. You can bet ‘play money’ on the outcome of news stories, and the most successful news-guessers are ranked accordingly.

If early promise translates to later success, expect to see socially-generated news predictions creating or informing news stories. A combination, perhaps, of the unnamed “analysts” or “commentators” beloved of the journalist, with the way that journos already use Facebook and other social networks.

VIA SEO by the Sea
IMAGE by Flickr user emdot, republished under a Creative Commons Attribution license.

Without a doubt, the big search news story so far this month is Microsoft’s $44.6 billion bid for Yahoo. Bloggers and industry analysts indulged in a little “will they, won’t they” speculation as the story dodged a warning shot from Google. Nilhan Jayasinghe was among those speculating, writing:

For many people in the advertising and marketing space, the partnership could provide a plausible contender for Google. And at least on paper the numbers add up. But if all we can expect is increased market share based purely on combining their current capital then I’m worried.

He needn’t have been; Yahoo cruelly spurned Microsoft’s advances. Still, there was even more excitement for the search engine on Valentine’s Day, as reports surfaced that Rupert Murdoch’s MySpace-owning News Corporation was considering a stronger bid. The story rumbles on.

The last fortnight has seen a few blows to openness on the web, with eBay silencing negative seller comments, the government wanting to unplug illegal downloaders, and a US court plugging Wikileaks.

Over on Open, meanwhile, Antony Mayfield was wowed by Gartner’s prediction that two years hence, social lending will account for 10% of the loans market:

Imagine ten percent of your market disappearing in a few years to social marketplace… Of course it’s happened (and then some) already for music, news, classified ads, movies etc - but there’s something thrilling about seeing the forces of change stirred up by the social web reaching the personal finance sector.

Antony’s also been discussing the technology of the US presidential campaigns, and the way that some of the most effective campaigning is being done by people outside of the campaign staff. He shows how wrong the approach can go with a “cringe-inducing” video from Hilary Clinton’s team:

Someone in the room knew it was an abysmal idea and stayed quiet. Let us remember that always, and swear never to be the person who didn’t say: ‘That completely sucks. People will laugh at us.’

Technopedia has a round up of the top marketing articles of 2007. With over 250 articles, this is an extremely comprehensive and useful resource. There are articles covering all the various online marketing services we offer such as SEO, paid search, social media, web development, and content.

Best Internet Marketing Blog Posts of 2007

I’m loving writing our news feed, for the simple reason that we now have the time to actually read about stuff that’s going on in and around journalism and marketing, and begin to make some sense out of the madness amid which we find ourselves.

Anyway, seen this in the Guardian. There’s another glimpse of the NUJ and where its thinking is at, and some relevance to us and what we’re doing.

Two interesting quotes:

“I don’t think most web users or Orange customers, for that matter, really want to get their news from Orange. They want established news brands.”

She may be right, and this is certainly one of the biggest challenges to overcome if we want the content we produce here to be successful…

“The news industry might not want to stoop to the lows of Hot or Not, but perhaps a little flexibility and creativity when it comes to new formats might just come up with some equally compelling - and underpin all that expensive journalism.”

…and this is our biggest opportunity.

I came across Lijit today - a social search widget that allows people to search using individuals as filters for information. It claims to search content, posted items, bookmarks etc. associated with an individual and their network.

The widget regards individuals as a trusted sources of information, and leverages their network for further sources. Could this work for brands too?

It will be interesting to see how this takes off in terms of uptake and sentiment.

www.lijit.com